A Glass Half Full, Or a Glass Half Empty?
by David Small, Copyright 2022©
The meaning of Marriott Bonvoy® Flexible Points Redemption (AKA as “Dynamic Pricing”) arrived today, February 25, 2022. The message offers exactly the same information released on October 26, 2021, except the announcement noted flexible point redemption commences March 29, 2022.
See my first article with thoughts on how this might play out and if you are totally new to Marriott Bonvoy be sure to read our in depth guide.
2.26.22 UPDATE: Many members aspire to use points at the Marriott Luxury Brand hotels, Ritz-Carlton, St. Regis, JW Marriott, The Luxury Collection, W Hotels, and Edition. The list of 200 properties comprises 28 Ritz-Carlton properties (out of a total 105), 10 St. Regis hotels out of a total of 48, five JW Marriott properties out of 114, a total of 18 Luxury Collection locations (out of 56), four W Hotels out of 58 worldwide, and three Edition properties out of 13. The Luxury brands represented 68 total hotels out of 200 on the updated points list. Thirty-four percent of the properties scheduled for points increases from up to 5,000 points per night to up to 30,000 per night reside in the luxury brands category. I mention this at the end of the article, but watch closely for the Marriott’s wording of “up to,” as it relates to occupancy.
What does the announcement actually say?
The “flexible points redemption” will replace the charts for approximately 7,700 properties — offering points redemption aligned with nightly rates, but maintained within the current chart redemption ranges for stay dates in 2022. Approximately 7,700 properties offer the same range of points needed within the current redemption chart. There is no announcement for 2023 and beyond.
What else was announced?
Marriott shared an increase in points redemption for 200 hotels worldwide. This is not flexible points redemption/dynamic pricing. The increases are not related to nightly rate — the increases are flat, inflationary surges ranging from 5,000 more points needed to 30,000 more points needed per nightly points stay. THE CHART OF THE 200 HOTELS
The cost of paper, the cost of labor, the cost of bacon, all experienced inflation. The cost of meat, poultry, fish and eggs rose 12.5% over the last twelve months, according to Forbes. The cost of redeeming points at 200 Marriott hotels also increased.
What I got right, and what I got wrong in my November analysis of dynamic points pricing.
1. Somewhat correct. The “3%” is actually ~2.5%, and the 200 hotels are not engaging in dynamic points pricing; annual points inflation occurred.
2. Correct. The approximately 7,700 hotels in the Marriott system will institute flexible points redemption “lite.” Redemptions will mimic the current redemption band. There is no announcement this will change. Guaranteed to remain in place throughout 2022; further announcements to arrive concerning 2023 and beyond.
3. Correct. I asked readers to look at the 3% (now, 2.5%) and use those hotels in my “window analysis” for what may happen with the other 7,700 properties. The window is open for 200 properties.
4. Correct. There were no 100% more points needed, or 1,000,000 points needed for a current category 8 hotel compared to current peak at 100,000.
5. Incorrect and correct. I gave an example of a aspired property rising by 8% in points needed. I was wrong — the 200 properties listed today have a “low increase” of 16%. I also gave an example of a courtyard rising 43% at high occupancy. That matches some of the increases announced today for the impacted 200 properties.
Is the glass half full, or at least not half empty?
Forty-two category 7 properties (categorized until March 29, 2022) inflate by up to 60%. What does that mean? At the bottom end of the redemption spectrum related to current redemption chart, The Paris Marriott Champs Elysees Hotel, booked at off-peak, redeemed as low as 50,000 as a category 7 hotel, rises to as much as 80,000 points.
The Peak Silver Lining
Marriott delivers an incentive to stay at peak time at the Paris Marriott Champs Elysee Hotel and other category 7 hotels comprising the list of 42 properties impacted by the 30,000 point inflation. Book at off peak and the inflation goes from 60% inflation down to a 42.8% rise. All of the increases deliver less inflation at peak redemption, compared to the current redemption chart.
Interested in the Springhill Suites Denver Tech Center? My wife stays at this property, and this category 2 hotel delivers a 33% increase needed for peak points redemption. A close Bonvoy friend prefers hotels in Marriot’s Luxury brands. His visits to New York City find him at the St. Regis Hotel on 55th. A peak redemption at the iconic Manhattan property reflects a 20% increase on and after March 29, 2022.
Reserve at the popular Ritz-Carlton Orlando, Grande Lakes and the inflationary increase is as low at 16.6%. Staying at the adjacent JW Marriott Orlando, Grande Lakes reserves at 0% inflationary increase in points.
The 200 properties with point increases comprise the list of highly redeemed properties, luxury properties, and aspired properties.
The Dynamic Pricing Fine Print
Marriott stated, “At about 30 of these hotels, point redemption rates may rise above previous Category 8 rates during peak times.”
What to do next?
Review the chart. They deliver a fixed, inflationary points increase ranging from 5,000 extra points needed per night to 30,000 extra points needed per night. Book and reserve with points if your destination matches one of the 200 properties. Book before March 29, 2022.
I will monitor the other 7,700 properties, and I await further announcements for dynamic pricing in 2023 and beyond. I will also be reviewing the chart statement of “up to” for each inflationary points increase of the 200 properties.
David Small has a love affair with travel, and he loves to “see the world” through the eyes of his wife and children when they accompany him to destinations in the States and abroad. He is a Marriott Bonvoy enthusiast who enjoys every brand offered – rewarded by the richness of each experience and the people involved at each property.
Small runs a national media company, and he used to manage airline points loyalty programs for Sprint — in partnership with United Airlines, Northwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Virgin Atlantic Airlines and Midwest Express Airlines.
